With the US presidential election just around the corner on November 5, all eyes are on the battleground swing states that could make or break the race. According to AtlasIntel’s latest poll, former President Donald Trump has gained a lead over Democratic contender Kamala Harris in each of these critical states, setting the stage for a nail-biting final push.
The AtlasIntel poll, conducted on November 1-2, included around 2,500 likely voters across the country, with a majority of respondents identifying as female. As of this survey, Trump holds a 1.8% edge over Harris nationwide, with 49% of respondents expressing support for the Republican candidate. This slim lead underscores just how tight the race is, but in the swing states – those ever-unpredictable deciding zones – Trump’s advantage is more pronounced.
Swing states are no ordinary electoral battlegrounds. These are the states where the voting population tends to teeter between Republicans and Democrats, often decided by razor-thin margins. Trump has secured the lead in all seven key swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – according to the AtlasIntel poll. In Arizona, for instance, Trump holds his most significant margin, with 51.9% of voters favoring him compared to Harris’s 45.1%. In Nevada, he leads 51.4% to Harris’s 45.9%, while in North Carolina, the margin is slightly narrower, with Trump at 50.4% to Harris’s 46.8%.
These numbers could be pivotal. While “red states” and “blue states” – reliably Republican and Democratic states, respectively – often follow a set trend, swing states have proven to be anything but predictable. These states can easily tip the scales of the electoral college, and just a few thousand votes here or there can spell victory or defeat. Think back to the 2020 election, where Joe Biden’s narrow win in Arizona came down to only 10,000 votes. That’s the high-stakes nature of swing states, and it’s why both parties pour immense resources into campaigning and mobilizing voters in these areas.
Adding another layer of intrigue, a Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 29 gave Harris a slight overall lead over Trump, 44% to 43%. While Harris has consistently led Trump in Ipsos polling since entering the race in July, the margin has been shrinking, especially since late September.
Both candidates face an uphill battle in the final days of the race, with undecided voters in swing states likely to hold the ultimate power. These are the states where sentiment shifts rapidly, and a single late-campaign revelation or surge in turnout could tip the balance.
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